Impacts of LULC and climate change on runoff and sediment production for the Puyango-Tumbes basin (Ecuador-Peru)

Abstract

Climate change will cause alterations in the hydrological cycle, a topic of great relevance to the scientific community due to its impacts on water resources. Investigating changes in hydrological characteristics at the watershed level in the context of climate change is fundamental for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies against extreme hydrological events. This study aimed to analyze the impacts of climate change on flow and sediment production in the Puyango-Tumbes watershed. Projected climate data from CMIP6 were used, corrected through a bias adjustment process to minimize discrepancies between model data and historical observations, ensuring a more accurate representation of climate behavior. The analysis combined two representative climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) with two land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios: (a) an optimistic scenario with reduced anthropogenic effects (LULC_1985) and (b) a pessimistic scenario reflecting future impacts (LULC_2015). The SWAT model estimated future flow and sediment production for two periods (2035-2065 and 2070-2100), following model calibration and validation against the reference period 1981-2015 at three hydrometric stations: Pindo, Puyango, and El Tigre, located in Ecuador and Peru. The simulations revealed a significant increase in sediment generation under the pessimistic scenario SSP5-8.5, followed by SSP2-4.5, while lower sediment yields were observed in the optimistic scenarios. Even in the best-case scenario (optimistic SSP2-4.5), sediment yields remained substantially higher than the reference conditions. Additionally, higher flows were anticipated in some scenarios, with the El Tigre station in the lower watershed being the most affected area. These findings underscore the high probability of more frequent flooding events due to increased sediment yields and flow variability. The results highlight the urgent need for implementing adaptation measures, such as improved land use management and hydrological infrastructure, to enhance social resilience and mitigate the impacts of climate change in the watershed.