Future runoff from glacierized catchments in the Central Andes could substantially decrease

Abstract

In Peru, about 50% of the energy is produced from hydropower plants. An important amount of this energy is produced with water from glaciated catchments. In these catchments river streamflow is furthermore needed for other socio-economic activities such as agriculture. However, the amount and seasonality of water from glacial melt is expected to undergo strong changes. As glaciers are projected to further decline with continued warming, runoff will become more and more sensitive to possible changes in precipitation patterns. Moreover, as stated by a recent study (Neukom et al., 2015), wet season precipitation sums in the Central Andes could decrease up to 19-33 % by the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. Here, we investigate future runoff availability for selected glacierized catchments in the Peruvian Andes. In a first step, we apply a simplified energy balance and runoff model (ITGG-2.0-R) for current conditions.