Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorZulkafli, Z.
dc.contributor.authorBuytaert, W.
dc.contributor.authorManz, B.
dc.contributor.authorRosas, C.V.
dc.contributor.authorWillems, P.
dc.contributor.authorLavado-Casimiro, W.
dc.contributor.authorGuyot, J.L.
dc.contributor.authorSantini, W.
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-21T18:06:15Z
dc.date.available2019-07-21T18:06:15Z
dc.date.issued2016-01
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe/handle/20.500.12542/53
dc.description.abstractThe impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia.en_US
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherInstitute of Physics Publishingen_US
dc.relation.ispartofurn:issn:1748-9318
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_PE
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/*
dc.sourceServicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perúes_PE
dc.sourceRepositorio Institucional - SENAMHIes_PE
dc.subjectCambio Climáticoen_US
dc.subjectHydrological extremesen_US
dc.subjectPeruvian Amazonen_US
dc.subjectBiodiversidaden_US
dc.subjectCarbónen_US
dc.subjectClimate modelsen_US
dc.subjectEcologyen_US
dc.subjectFlooden_US
dc.subjectAmazonia
dc.subjectControl de Inundación
dc.subjectPrevención de Inundaciones
dc.titleProjected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazonen_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleen_US
dc.identifier.isni0000 0001 0746 0446
dc.description.peerreviewPor pares
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014013
dc.source.volume11es_PE
dc.source.issue1es_PE
dc.source.journalEnvironmental Research Letterses_PE
dc.subject.siniainundaciones - Clima y Eventos Naturales
dc.type.siniatext/publicacion cientifica
dc.identifier.urlhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/53


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess