Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

dc.contributor.authorOlsson, T.
dc.contributor.authorKämäräinen, M.
dc.contributor.authorSantos, Darwin
dc.contributor.authorSeitola, T.
dc.contributor.authorTuomenvirta, H.
dc.contributor.authorHaavisto, R.
dc.contributor.authorLavado-Casimiro, W.
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-20T01:09:01Z
dc.date.available2019-07-20T01:09:01Z
dc.date.issued2017-10
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe/handle/20.500.12542/46
dc.description.abstractStudy region The Chancay-Huaral (CH) coastal river basin in the Lima Region, Peru, between the Pacific Ocean and the Andean Cordillera. Study focus Climate change impacts on annual and monthly discharges in the CH Basin are assessed for the future period 2051–2080. Hydrological modeling is sensitive to biases in input variables. Therefore, bias-corrected time series of temperature and precipitation from 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used as inputs for the Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP). Bias correction and downscaling of the GCMs were implemented using a quantile mapping method. New hydrological insights for the region On average, GCMs indicate increased annual mean temperatures by 3.1 °C (RCP4.5) and by 4.3 °C (RCP8.5) and precipitation sum by 20% (RCP4.5) and by 28% (RCP8.5). With increasing total precipitation, river discharges are also found to increase, but the variability among the GCMs is considerable. The largest increases in monthly discharge are projected to occur in the wet season (November − April) − with up to 31% increase of December multi-model mean. Despite the larger annual discharge for the mean multi-model result, discharges in the dry season may decrease according to some GCMs, showing the need for an adapted future water management.en_US
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofurn:issn:2214-5818
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesses_PE
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/*
dc.sourceServicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perúes_PE
dc.sourceRepositorio Institucional - SENAMHIes_PE
dc.subjectCambio Climáticoes_PE
dc.subjectHydrological Modelingen_US
dc.subjectPeruen_US
dc.subjectQuantile mappingen_US
dc.subjectCuencas
dc.titleDownscaling climate projections for the Peruvian coastal Chancay-Huaral Basin to support river discharge modeling with WEAPen_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleen_US
dc.identifier.isni0000 0001 0746 0446
dc.description.peerreviewPor pares
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.05.011
dc.source.volume13es_PE
dc.source.initialpage26es_PE
dc.source.endpage42es_PE
dc.source.journalJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studieses_PE
dc.description.fundingThis work was supported by the Finnish Academy through funding of the AquaFutura project (grant decision 250529 ) and by the Fortum Foundation (grant number 201500127 ). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. The U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We thank the editor, Professor Patrick Willems, and four anonymous reviewers for providing valuable comments to improve considerably the manuscript.es_PE


Ficheros en el ítem

Thumbnail
Thumbnail

Este ítem aparece en la(s) siguiente(s) colección(es)

Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Excepto si se señala otra cosa, la licencia del ítem se describe como info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess