Congresohttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/1902024-03-29T11:19:31Z2024-03-29T11:19:31ZAssessment of climate Change impact on water supply in PeruLavado-Casimiro, W.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/24632022-10-26T18:01:01Z2022-09-01T00:00:00ZAssessment of climate Change impact on water supply in Peru
Lavado-Casimiro, W.
In this work, the simulation of the water supply has been carried out using the SWAT hydrological model to generate streamflows throughout Peru. For this purpose, 35 hydrological stations distributed in the 3 drainages of Peru have been used, simulating the entire country for the first time considering 4,355 sub-basins and 168 hydrographic units (HU); obtaining time series of streamflows for the period 1981-2016. To evaluate the impact of climate change on water supply of Peru, three regional climate models based on dynamic regionalization have been used, obtaining time series from 1981 to 2065 with a spatial resolution of ~ 10 km. Based on these data, and using the delta change method, the streamflows generated in the period 2035-2065 versus 1981-2016 have been compared.
La XI Asamblea Científica de la Asociación Internacional de Ciencias Hidrológicas (IAHS 2022) tendrá lugar en Montpellier (Francia) del 29 de mayo al 3 de junio de 2022.
2022-09-01T00:00:00ZRainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily dataMillán Arancibia, CarlosLavado-Casimiro, W.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/23202022-07-26T22:20:20Z2022-07-20T00:00:00ZRainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data
Millán Arancibia, Carlos; Lavado-Casimiro, W.
The objective of this work was to generate and evaluate regional rainfall thresholds obtained from a combination of high-resolution gridded precipitation data (PISCOpd_Op), developed by the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI), and information from observed shallow landslide events. The landslide data were associated with rainfall data, determining triggering and non-triggering rainfall events with rainfall properties from which rainfall thresholds were determined. The validation of the performance of the thresholds was carried out with events that occurred during 2020 and focused on evaluating the operability of these thresholds in landslide warning systems in Peru. Thresholds were determined for 11 rainfall regions. The method of determining the thresholds was based on an empirical–statistical approach, and the predictive performance of the thresholds was evaluated from the “true skill statistics” (TSS) and the area under the curve (AUC). The best predictive performance was obtained by the mean daily intensity-duration (Imean – D) threshold curve, followed by accumulated rainfall E. This work is the first attempt to estimate regional thresholds on a country scale in order to better understand landslides, and the results obtained reveal the potential of using thresholds in the monitoring and forecasting of shallow landslides caused by intense rainfall and in supporting the actions of disaster risk management.
2022-07-20T00:00:00ZCan we use TRMM-PR bright band heights to estimate the snow-rain transition in high mountain regions?Schauwecker, SimoneRohrer, MarioSchwarb, ManfredHuggel, ChristianSuarez, WilsonArias, SandroSalzmann, NadineGurgiser, Wolfganghttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/20212022-05-04T08:00:51Z2015-01-01T00:00:00ZCan we use TRMM-PR bright band heights to estimate the snow-rain transition in high mountain regions?
Schauwecker, Simone; Rohrer, Mario; Schwarb, Manfred; Huggel, Christian; Suarez, Wilson; Arias, Sandro; Salzmann, Nadine; Gurgiser, Wolfgang
Field and modelling based research indicates that for tropical glaciers, variations in snow cover and the altitude of the snow line via albedo effects are among the most crucial factors to explain the differences in annual glacier mass balance variability. It is therefore essential to identify the height of the phase change during precipitation events and its coupling with glacier mass balance. This knowledge is also fundamental to assess possible future impacts of e.g. changing air temperatures on glacier mass balances at low latitudes.
However, the knowledge on heights of phase changes and air temperature during precipitation events is severely limited by the small number of meteorological measurements at high altitudes in the tropics and the Himalaya. Additionally, their one-dimensional type of observation that cannot appropriately account for the variations along the vertical dimension. Remote sensing data are promising tools to fill these data gaps. Before using remote sensing products for studying surface processes, it is crucial to know their accuracies and limitations. Here, we use the the bright band (BB) calulation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) as provided in the product 2A23. The bright band is a horizontal layer of stronger radar reflectivity produced by the melting of precipitation at the level where solid precipitation turns into rain. It may be thus a good proxy for the snowline during precipitation events at high mountain regions. To our knowledge, the potential of this product in studies of glacier surface processes has not been further evaluated so far.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZPresent and future water resources supply and demand in the Central Andes of Peru: a comprehensive review with focus on the Cordillera VilcanotaDrenkhan, FabianHuggel, ChristianSalzmann, NadineGiráldez, ClaudiaSuarez, WilsonRohrer, MarioMolina, EdwinMontoya, NiltonMiñan, Fiorellahttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/20202022-05-04T08:00:51Z2014-01-01T00:00:00ZPresent and future water resources supply and demand in the Central Andes of Peru: a comprehensive review with focus on the Cordillera Vilcanota
Drenkhan, Fabian; Huggel, Christian; Salzmann, Nadine; Giráldez, Claudia; Suarez, Wilson; Rohrer, Mario; Molina, Edwin; Montoya, Nilton; Miñan, Fiorella
Glaciers have been an important element of Andean societies and livelihoods as direct freshwater supply for agriculture irrigation, hydropower generation and mining activities. Peru’s mainly remotely living population in the Central Andes has to cope with a strong seasonal variation of precipitations and river runoff interannually superimposed by El Niño impacts. Direct glacier and lake water discharge thus constitute a vital continuous water supply and represent a regulating buffer as far as hydrological variability is concerned. This crucial buffer effect is gradually altered by accelerated glacier retreat which leads most likely to an increase of annual river runoff variability. Furthermore, a near-future crossing of the ‘peak water’ is expected, from where on prior enhanced streamflow decreases and levels out towards a new still unknown minimum discharge. Consequently, a sustainable future water supply especially during low-level runoff dry season might not be guaranteed whereas Peru’s water demand increases significantly.
2014-01-01T00:00:00Z